Focus on Forecasting: When will the Big Change Come?

Recently H. Rock White advised his readers to avoid being irrelevant:‘one-person’s-project’/

Don’t be the white Daryl Lamont Jenkins. Don’t consign yourself to a lifetime of irrelevant posturing. Find something to do which will appeal to whites beyond ‘the scene’. Work on building local communities. Find ways to improve your own life. Engage in productive activism which carries good messages to whites who might otherwise be unaware.

That’s an easy prescription to make, but a hard one to put into practice. I blog precisely because my local community is not receptive to my message. If I could have these conversations with anyone I know in my local community, I would be hanging out in my local community, not blogging about everything from disruptive technologies to Jeffersonian notions of race.

This blog wanders all over the map. While I am sympathetic to the ethnic interests of the European gene pool, I am not going to blog as an advocate of Ethnic Genetic Interests. I am childless and have no prospects for fertile marriage; thus, as Greg Johnson has explained, I should not position myself as a leader in the cause of EGI.

Likewise, I am a Jeffersonian, but Jeffersonian thought is an impractical philosophy, not a practical system of politics. At best, the Jeffersonian can point to a host of errors in modern politics and demand that these errors be admitted. As long as the masses are asleep to such injustices, there can be no practical Jeffersonian politics.

However, the redoubtable Kievsky gave me an encouraging thought:

”Multiculturalism is very expensive, high maintenance social engineering. It will fail when they can’t pay for it any more.”

Further, someone called HelenChicago asked:

“When do you expect this to occur? Within our lifetimes, or more than a century in the future?”

The careful pundits, e.g. John Robb and Pat Lang, tend to hedge their predictions as possibilities.

Less cautious doomsayers have predicted doom by 2 August 2010, and this blog is scheduled to keep up with developments on that story.

When will the Big Change Come?

I think the key issue is the strength of the USA dollar. As long as the USA dollar is strong enough to be used for reserve currency, the current geopolitical situation will probably persist.

When the USA dollar has some kind of international crisis – then there will be sudden change.

Here are some possible crises:
a) US dollar hyperinflates; US residents panic and cannot buy food.
b) US defaults on debts and fails to conceal it; markets panic.
c) China suddenly refuses to buy more US bonds; markets panic.

Here are some possible non-crisis turning points:
d) US defaults on debts but successfully conceals default; markets stagger along.
e) China buys fewer bonds but US has time to adjust; business as usual.
f) US cuts entitlements but conceals cuts; US residents blame each other.

Because a,b, and c would destabilize the US, the Powers That Be will expend a lot of resources to push for non-crisis alternatives such as d, e, and f.

Forecasting rationally predictable disruptions is important, and I plan to blog a lot about exactly that topic. But recall that there are also black swans, unpredicted disruptions, and those can have a lot more impact because it’s harder to prepare for them.


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